Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 22.703717 24.007642 25.382033 26.944684 28.679624 30.555559 32.749245
2026-01-18 20.787059 22.581355 24.564606 26.940666 29.739340 32.969481 37.038307
2026-01-25 19.369257 21.396318 23.705073 26.567433 30.077163 34.320138 39.970473
2026-02-01 18.256024 20.421067 22.943691 26.155462 30.222071 35.329898 42.464928
2026-02-08 17.297771 19.540139 22.200230 25.660332 30.158730 35.994735 44.495587
2026-02-15 16.647561 18.977361 21.787891 25.518672 30.494587 37.160515 47.295684
2026-02-22 16.327203 18.789805 21.813448 25.915344 31.541207 39.353732 51.838740
2026-03-01 15.753125 18.249858 21.353717 25.630293 31.616050 40.153764 54.330675
2026-03-08 15.036698 17.496120 20.578802 24.870451 30.960368 39.808013 54.901935
2026-03-15 14.570293 17.041495 20.169389 24.578568 30.940602 40.396012 57.086820
2026-03-22 14.433678 17.003078 20.299794 25.029086 32.017640 42.753976 62.704857
2026-03-29 14.223262 16.856710 20.274797 25.252539 32.762945 44.647611 67.809839
2026-04-05 14.017378 16.721106 20.274512 25.535373 33.659174 46.955846 74.375342
2026-04-12 13.725225 16.459650 20.090377 25.539731 34.120612 48.580143 79.946873
2026-04-19 13.339111 16.056401 19.690562 25.198504 33.994792 49.137854 83.276384
2026-04-26 12.966431 15.658776 19.282481 24.822054 33.780786 49.505074 86.246253
2026-05-03 12.591465 15.246525 18.838664 24.369090 33.407010 49.531171 88.389577
2026-05-10 12.339263 14.995138 18.613818 24.239394 33.566286 50.590015 93.481519
2026-05-17 12.251655 14.967384 18.706133 24.602451 34.592024 53.474295 104.554792
2026-05-24 11.984162 14.680360 18.412119 24.341592 34.502525 54.073107 109.166049
2026-05-31 11.602153 14.223764 17.858015 23.645355 33.596443 52.871354 107.797447
2026-06-07 11.360199 13.958980 17.577888 23.377564 33.448039 53.277243 111.860277
2026-06-14 11.322213 13.980373 17.717994 23.790817 34.563813 56.567068 127.275532